Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.