Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".