Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
